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Aella Girl's Curious Spinning Circle Results: Why Do The Probabilities Match The Bets?
Nov 25, 2022
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William M Briggs

Statistician to the Stars! Ex-SSgt.

EVERYTHING YOU BELIEVE IS WRONG

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Description

Aella Girl tweeted this:

"Imagine a circle laid flat on a table, with a little spinner on it that you can flick. The circle is 80% red and 20% yellow, like a yellow pie slice. You flick the spinner. It spins, and slowwwly stops. Where did it land?"

About 80% voted red, the remaining voting yellow.

One commenter said, "The poll results pretty closely matches the 80/20 probability of each result. Super cool kinda a wisdom of crowds moment."

Is this close match the wisdom of the crowd, or something else?

Let's see.

Comment and more at https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/43708/

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