We know all about models by now, do we not, dear readers? A model, also known as a theory, can be made about any contingent thing. Say, your 401-K, or the fate of a currency, or the weather, or of the growth of academics researching "climate change".

Because the model is of something contingent, also known as an observable, and because of things like limitations in data and, even more important, limitations in thought, there will always be, or should be always, uncertainty in the model's predictions.

This is in no way a limitation or a fault. It is the nature of models.

But what kind of mistake would you be making if you took the output of your model and input it into another stripped of all uncertainty?

And what kind of mistake would the owner of the second model be making if he supplied his output, also stripped of uncertainty, to the creator of a third model?

It's a trick question. The answer is:...

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